The One Belt, One Road Project (OBOR), announced in 2013, is China’s latest grandiose project.
One Belt One Road: An Overview
A government report (Chinese National Development and Reform Commission [NDRC] 2015) states that one of the project’s key component is the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), a railway-based transport corridor. As the name suggests, the transport initiative is aimed at creating an economic belt made up of countries that were part of the ancient Silk Road, focusing on, “jointly building a new Eurasian Land Bridge and developing China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia economic corridors,” (NRDC 2015). Consequently, China’s grand vision in transforming the Eurasian landmass, would not only resurrect an ancient trade route but also, a more recent but equally intriguing geopolitical strategy, the Heartland theory.
The Heartland Theory: What is it?
British geographer Sir Halford J. Mackinder (1904) claimed that the world is made up of several geographic regions, the heartland along with the world island. For Mackinder (1904), the heartland comprises of Russia and Eastern Europe while the world island is the combined land mass of Asia, Europe, and Africa. As such, he believed that the heartland was of geopolitical significance, especially in transforming the world order. With its vast resources and its fortresslike geography, Mackinder (1904) saw the heartland as a land power. Furthermore, he saw land power as a prerequisite for state power, once its vast resources are mobilized by way of railroads, a transportation method he saw as superior to its maritime counterpart, as the vast area of Eurasia would best be mobilized using railroads as the continent is inaccessible to ships (Mackinder 1904 p.37). Thus, a mobilized heartland, he thought, “would permit the use of vast continental 2 resources for fleet-building, and the empire of the world would be in sight”(Mackinder 1904, p.37).
Hence, China’s endeavors in Eurasia can be seen as a geopolitical move to consolidate the country’s power in the heartland region. This is first seen in the railway component of the SREB, which links China with Central Asia, Russia, as well as Europe (NRDC 2015). The linked countries and regions are explicitly the heartland region described by Mackinder. Furthermore, Mackinder’s preferred mode of transportation, the railway is reimagined in China’s vision of the SREB in its very own transatlantic railroads, as seen in the diagram provided by the Economist (2017).
The railroad will not only help create a trade route between China and the countries of the heartland region, the railroad will also help mobilize the region’s vast resources as part of the SREB’S energy initiative as the linking of energy infrastructure in Central Asia is a priority for the Belt (Fallon 2015). If the SREB comes to fruition, China will have easier access to a market of highly important resources. For instance, Central Asia is China’s largest deposits of gold, uranium, oil and gas. Consequently, Xinjiang, where China tests its nuclear and ballistic missiles, relies heavily on Central Asia for 75 percent of its external trade (Muzalevsky, 2015 p.6). In addition, these railroad efforts may also lessen the country’s dependence on 80 percent of its imported energy resources from the Strait of Malacca, a considerably riskier route as it is subject to piracy, attempted theft and hijackings, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA 2014) reports. Hence, the energy initiative is undoubtedly, beneficial for China as it will provide a readily accessible and safer market of resources, and in the eyes of Mackinder, a necessity for “fleet-building”(Mackinder 1904, p.37).
China and its warm relations with key Heartland Players
Notably, China has been increasingly affirming its role in the heartland by engaging in several agreements with countries Mackinder had deemed as key players in the region, such as Eastern Europe, Russia, and Germany. Uttered in his infamous line, in which, whoever controlled Eastern Europe –the Heartland—would control the world (Mackinder 1919, p.150), Mackinder observed the geopolitical significance of Eastern Europe, because like Central Asia, it has plentiful resources.
Hence, China has seized the opportunity to form a coalition with Eastern Europe, dubbed the China-Central Eastern European Economic cooperation and friendship (CEE), which comprises of 11 EU countries such as Poland as well as five EU candidate countries such as Serbia (Fallon 2015, p.6) Despite, the seemingly cultural and linguistic boundary, China is bonded with these countries through their common historical experience of being communist states. Hence, a pro-China lobby can easily be formed by the 11 EU members of the CEE which could easily influence policymaking in the EU to China’s benefit.(Fallon 2015, p.6). In addition, Russia has also signed on to the economic belt with president Putin showing a willingness towards the project (Ziguo 2014). Likewise, Germany, China’s leading trade partner in Europe, has also agreed to join the initiative (Godement 2015).
A coalition between Russia and Germany is crucial in gaining a stake in the heartland as, “the empire of the 4 world would be in sight…if Germany were to ally herself with Russia” (Mackinder 1904, p.37). And right at the core of the coalition is an increasingly influential China. Moreover, the coalition could be considered as a geopolitical move against the US as the SREB knowingly excludes the United States. Furthermore, China’s involvement with the CEE and the possibility of a ProChina lobby, in the long term, “undermines the ties to a region long seen as supportive of US policies” (Fallon 2015, p.7). Therefore, China is not only consolidating its power in the region but is also seeking to weed out its competition, the United States.
One Belt One Road: China's guise to introduce military influence?
The Silk Road Economic Belt may seem as a means for China to extend its economic reach across the heartland, but the initiative could very well be a geopolitical impetus for China to exert its military influence in the region. As a majority of participating countries have considerably low accountability, political stability, high levels of corruption, as well as other security threats, China may find it necessary to protect its assets by deploying its military along the economic belt (Ghiasy & Zhou, 2017 ), also shown on the author’s diagram below.
Moreover, China has an innately explicit role in the protection of the routes as they are the primary stakeholder of the initiative. Thus, China has been increasingly cementing its military presence in Central Asia by providing military aid as well as through the expansion and modernization of its own military capabilities in the region (Fallon 2015, p.6).
What does this all mean?
Undoubtedly, the SREB is China’s tool for a geopolitical consolidation of its power in Mackinder’s heartland. Through the use of Mackinder’s approved transportation method, the railways will mobilize the region’s vast resources. This, in turn, would create a readily accessible market of resources for China to fuel its economic expansion as well as provide dependable resources that can improve/further advance the country. China will also be able to fulfill Mackinder’s vision of a Russia-Germany-Eastern Europe coalition necessary in becoming a world power. A grand project in the region will also necessitate a Chinese military presence to protect its assets, further cementing China’s role in the heartland not just as an economic power but one with a political and military influence to exert. And as the US continues to be excluded from the region and with China undermining its influence, China might be capable of becoming a global hegemony worthy of Mackinder’s vision.
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